Drawing on balanced panel data for 31 Chinese provincial-level units from 2011 to 2023, this paper combines a spatial lag model with a panel threshold model to examine how digital financial inclusion affects common wealth through three routes: spatial spillover, a transmission channel, and regime-dependent nonlinearity. The estimates show that a one-unit increase in the digital financial inclusion index raises the local common-wealth index by 0.725 units in net terms, but at the same time exerts a negative siphon effect of −0.203 on neighboring provinces. Industrial structure upgrading is found to be the main mediating channel, and its first-stage coefficient is 0.853. The direct effect declines from east to centre to west, and for all three sub-dimensions—coverage breadth, usage depth, and digitalization degree—local empowerment goes together with cross-regional suppression. With respect to marketization, a double-threshold pattern emerges: the promotion coefficient rises from 0.298 in the low regime to 0.475 in the high regime, so the marginal effect grows as institutional frictions ease. This study makes three advances. First, spatial spillovers and direct effects are identified within a single framework instead of treating them separately. Second, industrial upgrading is shown to be the channel through which digital finance affects common wealth. Third, the threshold-dependent pattern tied to marketization provides a concrete basis for region-specific policy design.
Research Article
Open Access