Industrial policy has returned to the centre of economic debate, yet evidence on how quickly and through which margins it reshapes real activity remains thin. We study firm entry, the margin through which resources first flow into a targeted sector, using a near-universe of 88,133 Chinese low-altitude economy (LAE) firms registered between 1966 and 2025. Over a compressed period the state raised the LAE from a niche concept to a national strategic priority, culminating in its first appearance in the 2024 Government Work Report. Monthly entry exhibits a sharp structural break: a supremum-Wald test dates the trend inflection to April 2024, immediately after the designation, while a level surge crystallises by October 2024 at roughly 2.3 times the counterfactual. The response is concentrated in the policy-named core segment, whose share of new entrants rises from 3% to 24%, and it diffuses spatially away from the incumbent Shenzhen-Guangzhou cluster. Entrants are small and thinly capitalised, a pattern consistent with speculative, subsidy-oriented entry.
Research Article
Open Access