This paper studies the heterogeneous temperature effect on provincial GDP growth fluctuations in China from Q1 2005 to Q2 2021. The temperature effect is divided into two parameters, i.e., the inter-quarter changes of average temperature and the intra-quarter highest-lowest temperature difference. The GDP fluctuations are represented by the quarterly GDP residual seasonality. A mixed-effect panel regression model with random coefficients of the two temperature parameters is compared to the baseline model with fixed coefficients of temperature variables. The result demonstrates strong regional heterogeneous relationships between the temperature variables and quarterly GDP fluctuations. Provinces in the Northern-China plain, such as Shangdong, Henan, and Anhui, exhibit positive GDP seasonality associated with both warmer average temperatures and higher intra-quarter temperature deviations, which benefit the agricultural production. Southwestern provinces (e.g., Guangxi, Yunnan, and Chongqing) experience a negative impact from rising inter-quarter average temperatures and larger intra-period temperature fluctuations, partly due to the hot summer's adverse effect on both industries and tourism. Northwestern and Southeastern provinces get mixed temperature-economic effects, with the former benefiting from higher average temperature and the latter suffering, while the former suffers from large intra-period climate fluctuations and the latter benefits, also due to their agricultural and industrial patterns and their respective geographical locations. The heterogeneity of the provincial temperature-economic effects reinforces the necessity for region-specific climate adaptation strategies, especially the development of green energy and coordinated efforts to integrate local climate risk assessments into national central economic planning.
Research Article
Open Access